CITIC Securities: The main line of three types of allocation after A shares enter the golden pit during the 1-2 week observation period
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Strategy Focus | Three main types of configuration sources after the “golden pit”: CITIC Securities Research Articles Qin Peijing Qiu Xiang Yang Lingxiu Lu Pin Yao Guangfu After the “golden pit” is gradually clear, the stock will enter 1?
An important observation period for the evolution of the epidemic situation and resumption of work after 2 weeks.
Investor sentiment tends to calm down after venting and excitement, resonance of various funds decays, and the market will enter a more rational consolidation period.
A shares are still in the middle of a position that can be actively configured, and have gradually moved from the “trading period” of oversold rebound to the “rational period” of gradual rationality.
It is expected that the market style will change from simply pursuing elasticity to more reasonable allocation costs: we have systematically sorted out the three main types of allocation main lines in our text: the core of conversion; the types of opportunities before the mitigation of the epidemic; the types of positions that can be gradually built after the mitigation of the epidemic.Specific portfolio.
The market focus shifts to epidemic evolution and post-holiday resumption, entering an important observation 杭州桑拿 period. 1) After the “golden pit” has been identified, the market focus shifts from epidemic pulse to epidemic evolution and post-holiday resumption.
The breakthrough determines the core of the market’s short-term risk appetite. The epidemic situation is still the core, and under the pressure of the return journey (Jin Qilin analyst), the epidemic situation in non-Hubei region has become the focus; instead, the progress of post-holiday resumption may lead to the revision of fundamental expectations.
As the process of resumption of work is positively related to the epidemic pressure, the specific development needs to be carefully observed.
2) The new crown epidemic has entered an important “second-order inflection point” observation period.
The overall controllable expectation of the epidemic is an important basis for 无锡桑拿网 supporting the market to repair after an oversold.
The 20th is an important observation period on whether an increase in the epidemic classification index can emerge.
Among them, issues that deserve attention include: whether the increase in the scale of suspected cases across the country can continue to decline, which is an important leading indicator; the scale of suspected cases and the expansion of medical observations in non-Hubei areas, which affects expectations of resumption of work; can Hubei’s cured cases recover rapidly.
3) Resumption of work after the holidays is guaranteed by policies, but the epidemic situation is a gradual process.
Recently, various ministries and commissions have successively introduced supporting measures to prevent and control the epidemic, promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, promptly promote major projects, and various measures to ensure employment stability.
Although the policy is underpinned, it is subject to the supply of masks and the intention of individual return to work, as well as the highest priority of epidemic prevention and control in various places: it is expected that the return to work after the holiday is an gradual process.
Investor sentiment has calmed down after the catastrophe and excitement, and the market has entered a more rational consolidation period. 1) The “golden pit” in February is the bottom of the market in 2020.
First, the one-time pulse impact of the epidemic on the market and fundamentals has gradually become a consensus; second, behind the short-term change is the timely and comprehensive expected management of policies; again, loose macro liquidity accumulates, and it is difficult to repeat in the short term; finally, “The risks of “two financings” and equity pledge are controllable, and the risk of forced selling is low.
2) The resonance of various types of funds decayed, and the A-shares entered the consolidation phase after repair.
After the market has experienced a sharp release of emotional concentration and rapid repair, the emotion will stabilize and the change will become smaller.
First of all, the potential net inflow of capital from the north to the contrarian trend in the week after the holiday is about 30 billion yuan (among which, the net inflow of foreign exchange in collocation / transaction / trusted by Chinese and Hong Kong-funded institutions is US $ 244 / -3.9 / 9.9 billion), which will be repaired after market overshootIt is expected that the scale of foreign inflows will return to the mean.
Moving forward, the positions of equity-type / partial-type / balanced hybrid funds on February 7 increased by 0 compared to the pre-holiday period.
0Pcts, constantly new product hedges and redemptions, fund self-purchase stability expectations: public offering foundations continue to play the role of market stabilizers.
Thirdly, according to the statistics of private placement rankings, the position of private placement in the previous week decreased rapidly by 8%.
8Pcts, and then actively participated in the rebound, it is expected that subsequent position fluctuations will become smaller.
The market style has changed from simply pursuing elasticity to more meaningful allocation value. 1) From the “trading period” of oversold rebound to the “rational period” of gradual rationality.
Behind the A-share rebound, the liquidity and loose funds further embraced long-term logically clear growth stocks.
The GEM refers to a P / E-ttm ratio of 4 to CSI 300 from the initial period.
0 rose to 4 on February 7.
A shares as a whole can still be actively deployed.
In the trading window of the previous oversold rebound, time and elasticity are more important; in the configuration window where investor sentiment is stable and market volatility is reduced, it is more important to consider performance and the estimated cost performance of the allocation.
2) Grasp the pace of deployment in conjunction with the evolution of the epidemic, focusing first on the benefits of return to work.
Considering the impact of the epidemic, our report systematically sorts out the opportunities and rhythms of A-share allocation in 2020, which specifically include three categories: the main line of conversion; the opportunity of transaction types before the mitigation of the epidemic; the types of positions that can be gradually built after the mitigation of the epidemic; and relatedportfolio.
It is recommended to continue to grasp the transaction-type opportunities brought by the epidemic, and also pay attention to the sub-sectors where the resumption progress is fast (see the main line and combination for details).
The main line and rhythm of the allocation of A shares after the “golden pit” Source: CITIC Securities Research Department Risk factors: Epidemic control is less than expected; the progress of resumption is significantly slower than expected; redundant short-term accelerated replacement.