Sun Paper (002078) 2018 Annual Results Express Commentary: 18Q4 results in line with expectations The company’s long-term growth momentum
The company released an 18-year performance report: the company achieved operating income of 216 in 18 years.
51 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.
59%, net profit attributable to mother 22.
34 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.
37%; of which, in the single quarter of 18Q4, revenue reached 55.
41 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.
79%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
33 trillion, down 33 a year.
44%, performance is in line with our expectations.
Paper prices fell and overlapping costs were high, and the company’s fourth-quarter performance was under pressure: Affected by accelerated demand-side 淡水桑拿网 growth and increased production capacity landing, paper prices continued to fall since 18Q2. According to Zhuochuang Information, the company’s main paperThe prices of copperplate, offset, and cardboard paper have dropped from the high point by about 21%, 16%, and 26% respectively. Despite the new capacity contribution, the continued decline in paper prices has accompanied the company’s Q4 revenue growth rate to further decrease.
From the profit side, due to the impact of the raw material inventory cycle, the actual pulp price cost of the company in 18Q4 is relatively high, so the profit side of Q4 is under pressure.
Regarding dissolving pulp, according to wind statistics, the average price of dissolving pulp in 18Q4 increased slightly by about 63 yuan / ton from Q3, and the profit of dissolving pulp business was stable.
The replenishment of stocks in the spring has driven paper prices back up slightly, and the profit of tons of paper is expected to recover marginally: from January to February of 1919, paper companies have issued price increases, ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton.
From the current point of view, the supply and demand of cultural paper and the competitive landscape are relatively better. Coupled with the support of raw material prices and overlapping stock replenishment in the peak season, we judge that cultural paper will still have a window of price increases, so the company’s main papermaking industry is profitable.Ability to promote marginal repair.
With clear capacity planning and active layout of the raw material side, the company has increased its growth momentum: the existing company has an annual pulp and paper capacity of 602 tons, of which 432 tons of paper capacity and 170 tons of pulp capacity.
In July 18, the company announced that it plans to build a 120-ton papermaking project in Laos. We believe that the scale of the project’s production in the future can further optimize the company’s packaging paper cost structure and increase cost advantages; it will gradually enrich the company’s product structure and help the company’s potential integrationLeader of sex paper companies.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Combined with the company’s performance report, taking into account the decline in paper penetration and at the same time the pulp price is still at a relatively high level, we lower the company’s net profit to 22 in 20-20.
7.8 billion (previous period was 23).
530,000 yuan), the corresponding EPS is 0.
96 yuan, currently corresponding to the corresponding PE is 8X, 9X, 7X.
Considering that the comparable company’s 19-year PE average is 7 times (Wind’s consensus expectation), and the company as a leading paper company has a clear capacity planning and a high degree of original integration, so it gives a certain estimated premium, gives it a 9-year PE in 19, and raises its target price to 7
47 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: the risk of large fluctuations in raw 合肥夜网 material prices; the demand of the paper industry is less than expected.